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A short article with huge implications... The Venezuela crisis is expanding day by day and there's always something new to discuss. Recently Guaido held a very near military coup, a huge change and total 180 from when Maduro had absolute military support and held coups as he pleased, especially when he took whatever control of the government that he could. So, Guaido having naturally held a coup himself is going to cause change because it's something new and unseen. With the opposition's (Guaido's) action, he was additionally planning to remove Maduro from the country in his push for true and constitutionally legitimate control, as he holds the top position in the National Assembly, meaning that he is, constitutionally, supposed to be the president.
So, as a result of Guaido's desire to remove Maduro from Venezuela, Russia has been accused of apparently interfering and attempting to keep Maduro in Venezuela with the intent to bolster and support his attempts and desires. The U.S. reacted to this and responded to Russia, warning them to avoid involving themselves and forcing an outcome. Then Russia reminds the U.S. not to involve itself and there's constant back and forth, especially more recently, where both governments and nations are letting themselves get more involved and there's bigger and bigger change. America is also tempting military action, or at least according to Pompeo despite officials' desire to at least give a strong attempt at ending the conflict peacefully.
I personally think that this conflict is looking really dangerous and has major potential to go wrong as it progresses. A Maduro takeover is not looking quite as likely even as it might have just a week or a few days ago, and other outcomes are increasing in chance. At this point the chance of a Guaido takeover is looking to be very high. It appears that Guaido is achieving greater military influence than he might've had in the recent past as well. And with that military influence he can more easily go forth and take the first steps to taking beginning control with his popularity among the population and form something closer to democracy. Maybe Guaido would take a negative turn and just abuse the control that the people trust him with, and that's not as unlikely as it might seem. However, right now it seems apparent that change has to take place and something needs to happen or keep happening. With this change of upper hand it's also increasing the chance of more significant 3rd party interference. With the U.S. and Russia disagreeing more and who's really involving themselves and intervening, it's possible that the issue could erupt and cause war, a terrifying outcome if it indeed happens. A terrifying outcome, because it means that U.S.-Russia tensions will decline even further and possibly even U.S.-China relations due to the amount of money that China's invested into supporting Maduro.
This connects to our studies in CWS because we recently completed our short studies on the current issues in Venezuela and their implications.
Questions:
1. What do you think about the possibility is of a Guaido takeover at this point in time and what convinces you of that?
2. How about the likelihood of very significant US and Russia intervention and what might we see if that happens?
3. How do you think the conflict and crisis may play out in the next few weeks or even just days, and what long-term implications could that have going forward?
So, as a result of Guaido's desire to remove Maduro from Venezuela, Russia has been accused of apparently interfering and attempting to keep Maduro in Venezuela with the intent to bolster and support his attempts and desires. The U.S. reacted to this and responded to Russia, warning them to avoid involving themselves and forcing an outcome. Then Russia reminds the U.S. not to involve itself and there's constant back and forth, especially more recently, where both governments and nations are letting themselves get more involved and there's bigger and bigger change. America is also tempting military action, or at least according to Pompeo despite officials' desire to at least give a strong attempt at ending the conflict peacefully.
This connects to our studies in CWS because we recently completed our short studies on the current issues in Venezuela and their implications.
Questions:
1. What do you think about the possibility is of a Guaido takeover at this point in time and what convinces you of that?
2. How about the likelihood of very significant US and Russia intervention and what might we see if that happens?
3. How do you think the conflict and crisis may play out in the next few weeks or even just days, and what long-term implications could that have going forward?
I think that at this point a Guaido take over is fully possible, and probably soon to occur. As we all know from our Venezuelan summit project, the majority of nations involved and impacted by this crisis support Guaido and already recognize and support him as the official president of Venezuela. While yes, Guaido’s recent failed coup attempt has made it seem as though Maduro’s government is still stable and strong, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, claims that Maduro was actually close to literally fleeing Venezuela to find safety in Cuba. Maduro’s plan to run away is proof that he and his government are under serious threat and it legitimizes Guaido’s attempt to gain power as Maduro revealed that he is nervous and feels at risk. Not only has Guaido become a legitimate threat to Maduro’s government, but by CNN also has given us reason to believe that the “army [is] deserting Maduro-” Guaido’s next attempt to gain power will surely be more promising with the added military support.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/americas/venezuela-guaido-maduro-intl/index.html
I think that Guaido is capable of taking over. He has enough support from the people of Venezuela and internationally. The rough terms between the US and Russia could urge Guaido to speed up his process and have an extra reason to quickly get Maduro out of power. Trump has stated that military intervention is the last resort and that he wants a peaceful transition of power. Apparently, Maduro's power is weakening but predicting how long he can last is hard to judge. There are sanctions that the US has put on Venezuela. Based on Claire's comment, I think that Guaido has his presidency almost guaranteed. He only has to push a little bit farther to take over. If Russia's intent is to support Maduro, they would have to act soon. If history says anything about Russia, though, it's that they are unpredictable for the most part.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article227964149.html
I can't disagree with the likelihood of a Guaido takeover and the international support that he receives at the moment. That point regarding Maduro losing traction is really interesting to look at and note because of what this could mean for an outcome. Russia could make an act of sudden desperation in an attempt to force the result that they want instead of idly standing by and watching as Guaido executes change and takes advantage of Maduro's naturally apparent weak position. Venezuela's political state is extremely hard to judge due to its history of volatility on many different levels. We've seen that things there and as a result internationally can change at an extremely swift pace, especially as evidenced by the constant changes over the course of a single week. I do agree that something has to happen from Russia if they really want Maduro to win but still, who knows what the Russian government may actually do and how this will evolve in the next few days.
DeleteI think a Guaido takeover is highly likely because the people want better conditions to live in because of Maduro. Most people in Venezuela support Guaido and Guaido is recognized as the legitimate president by many countries so only time will tell when then the next coup is going to take place. Therefore, if the coup were to happen, US and Russian intervention is super likely. The US will definitely back Guaido and the Russians will back Maduro or the next person to lead Maduro’s party. The place might become Cuba 2.0. I think that in the next few weeks, tensions are going to boil over and another coup will be attempted and I think that they will be closer in overthrowing the government than last time.
ReplyDeleteI think Guaido has a very high chance of taking over Venezuela because the people need a leader who represents them. Most people don't want a leader that doesn't listen to anything they say, and especially one that leads their country into immense debt. Just because Maduro pushed back once doesn't mean he will keep power much longer. I do not see a likelihood of the US intervening, but as Russia already has, they will probably continue to do so. The US would only intervene if Russia began to hold back the Venezuelan people from actually making the decision on the presidency, as I believe one of the primary concerns of the US is to create a democracy in Venezuela. However, even with a conflict between Russia in the US, both countries know each other's devastating power. I believe all tensions will be handled politically rather than physically (violently).
ReplyDeleteI think that a Guaido takeover is very likely at this point. I feel this because he is essentially recognized as the official president and he has led a more efficient march due to his well-fitting ideals for Venezuela and his solutions to end their horrific famine and poverty. As for the tension between the U.S. and Russia, it’s kind of hard to completely predict their future involvement. I think that if the conflict continues to escalate and Russia continues to force Maduro into Venezuela, the U.S. will take it upon themselves to help represent Guaido as the official president and even help remove Maduro to prevent anymore coups (which seem to be ineffective).
ReplyDeleteI think there is a high possibility of a Guaido takeover in Venezuela, because being the official president comes with responsibility. The people need better living conditions and someone to represent them. Maduro's plan to flee proves that there are serious threats towards him and increases Guaido's chances in gaining power. The tension between the US and Russia, i do not see the US intervening, but if Russia keeps forcing Maduro into Venezuela, the Us will take matters into their own hands and get involved. I believe that Guaido's attempt will lead him to power.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the author in that the conflict has the potential to be very dangerous, but I'd go so far as to say the whole conflict already has gone wrong. It started going wrong way back when Maduro was elected-- maybe even earlier. As we learned in our Venezuela unit, the country has been falling off the rails ever since they decided to have an almost exclusively oil-based economy. Many of the issues in Venezuela today (though I acknowledge that more than a single source is to be blamed) stem from a fundamentally weak economic foundation. I'm fairly torn about the likelihood of an American or Russian intervention. If this were to happen, I believe it would be in an attempt to get Venezuela in either side's corner. I hate to be cynical, but it seems as if nothing is done without some level of ulterior political motivation. If the US and Russia both make a move to aid or even interfere in Venezuelan affairs, we could even see the country being used as a site of another proxy war a la the Cold War. Venezuela is already a battleground-- politically and socially-- and the people do not need to be roped into a conflict between two more stable nations. At any rate, the current state of Venezuela will be a difficult one to recover from. People live in more fear than they did even several years ago. Establishment of a new and more stable government will not fix problems overnight. I predict that Venezuelans will be feeling the consequences of their state for years into the future. The lease privileged will most likely be the ones to suffer for longest. Hopefully the issue will not progress far beyond what it is now.
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