As Venezuela Crumbles, Opposition Led by Juan Guaidó Sees an Opportunity
Mr. Guaidó has captured the attention of those within Venezuela and outside of it — mainly for his striking claim that Mr. Maduro is not a legitimate ruler and his willingness to take charge of a transitional government. Manaure Quintero/Reuters
On January 21st, members of Venezuela's national guard turned against the controversial leadership of President Nicolás Maduro. This act of rebellion, which happened at a military installation in Caracas, happened only days after the opposition to the Maduro regime, Juan Guaidó, assured amnesty to all that supported him. This act of defiance by the Venezuelan military has helped bring to light the cracks that have been growing in the Venezuelan government.
Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader, has risen to the spotlight through his accusation that Mr. Maduro is not the rightful leader of Venezuela and through his argument that he, as the current Head of the National Assembly should take over as president that way he could run fair elections. On Wednesday, January 2019, Guaidó took his most bold move yet, when he told his fellow Venezuelans to go out into the streets and protest. This event can be taken even more seriously when compared to the last mass mobilization they had, where demonstrations in 2017 left over 100 people dead after fights with Venezuelan security forces.
While many members of the Maduro government defame and threaten Guaidó, it seems as if the world is closing in on the Maduro regime. The leftist government is currently surrounded by right-wing leaders and many different countries challenge the legitimacy of this second six-year term that he was sworn in for on January, 10th (notably the US is one of the countries challenging the legitimacy of the election).
Only one day after writing the summary above, Juan Guaidó declared himself as president and has been recognized as the President of Venezuela by our own Trump Administration. This self-declaration has happened on January 23rd and can be seen here. As Maduro breaks political ties with the US the only thing we know for certain is that Venezuela is going through a tumultuous time.
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Personally, I couldn't believe that something so big and prevalent is happening now, and even more surprisingly I haven't heard people talking about it. To think that a potential revolution or shift in power is happening in a country and this isn't what everyone is talking about. While yes protests for changes in government have happened recently like when we learned about Egypt last year, I still find it amazing how as you read this, there are potentially people taking to the streets of Venezuela protesting for a better life. I support these people and their mission to get a fair government that can hopefully help fix their broken economy. I really hope that any corruption is expelled from Venezuela. My only concern now is how little I know about Guaidó's past, but I can't wait to see where Venezuela goes from here.
Connection:
These uprisings and potential changes in power remind me of all the revolutions we have studied this year. From the Russian revolution to Mussolini taking control of Italy, this whole year we have studied how power can shift in a country. Now we have a current example happening right before us, as a potential shift of power looms over Venezuela.
Questions:
1. If you were the US would you recognize Nicolás Maduro as president or Juan Guaidó?
2. What do you predict for Venezuela's future? Do you think Juan Guaidó can take charge, or is Nicolás Maduro here to stay?
As you had stated earlier Venezuela is going through a very “tumultuous” time in comparison to its long, rich and beautiful history. I agree with your point that much more people should be talking about this event as it is not every day or even decade that you get to see such a historical moment that will forever go down in history. I do agree with you but there has to be a much more peaceful solution to the problem in Venezuela, as innocent lives are being lost. It has been reported at the moment that there are at least 26 people dead. (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/25/venezuela-shadow-government-leader-offers-amnesty-maduro-death/) Now going to your question, if I was the US, I would hold back on officially recognizing anyone as the president of Venezuela yet. This may sound odd but my reasoning for this would be that picking a leader would only create even more tension and anger between the two parties involved. Which could result in even more casualties and damage. Responding to your second question, I think that even though Venezuela is going through a rough time at the moment, everything will work out just fine. In my personal opinion I believe that Juan Guaidó will eventually take over and Nicolás Maduro will be overthrown. You can estimate that Nicolás Maduro will be overthrown because of how passionate the Venezuelan people are for achieving a better life.
ReplyDeleteI believe that your idea of holding back on recognizing president is a good idea. I think that trying to lessen the tension is a great idea that would probably help the people of Venezuela a lot. In addition, I also agree with you prediction of Juan Guaidó taking over. Overall I think you comment was very informational and thoughtful and I concur.
DeleteThe U.S. shouldn't meddle in Venezuela's government, because of the fact that we know nothing about Guaido. Although Maduro is a bad leader, we can't just assume that Guaido is any better. For all we know, he could be even worse that Maduro. As a powerhouse of a country, we need to set a precedent of recognizing other countries sovereignty; we wouldn't want another country coming in and meddling with our electoral systems. Just look at the outrage when we discovered Russia did have some sway in our electoral systems in the 2016 elections. Although Guaido may seem to have the upper hand, Maduro could very possibly keep control, because he does have a history of jailing political rivals.
ReplyDelete-Rumi Loghmani
Juan Guidado will most likely take charge because he has support from multiple UN nations including the U.S. This combined with the fact venezula is on the brink of collapse give guiado an great advantage. Should he be able to survive for eight more days without Maduro jailing of arresting he will be offically declared president Britain, Spain, Germany, and France. The U.S also has already decalred him leader.(https://www.voanews.com/a/pompeo-urges-international-support-for-venezuelan-opposition-leader/4760168.html)(Facts)
ReplyDeleteWhat you are stating is actually false. The article that you linked has no mention of the U.S. recognizing Guaido as president. While there is mention of Britain, spain , Germany, and France recognizing Guaido as president, that doesn't mean that the current government of Venezuela must also see him as leader. The current leader, Maduro, does still have quite a bit of sway among other government officials.
Delete-Rumi Loghmani
An important fact that I found while researching this topic is that the Supreme Court of Venezuela is filled with avid supporters of the socialist ruler Maduro. According to Fox News, he has already took actions to stop Guaidó, like not allowing him to leave the country and blocking his financial accounts. I thought an important part of the corruption and fall of the Venezuelan government was the extreme hyperinflation that occurred since November of 2016. Forbes reports that the inflation rate has risen to over 80,000% of what it once was. Due to this crazy factor, 90% of the Venezuelan population is living in poverty. In fact, people were spending money as soon as they received it because they knew that the prices would rise exorbitantly, and the money they had would be worthless. An obvious connection would be to the Weimar Republic in Germany that printed money and stimulated hyperinflation in Germany. The Weimar Republic fell, and maybe that same fate is waiting for Venezuela.
ReplyDeleteI think the U.S. making the right decision to stand up against corruption and to help the Columbian people improve their livelihood by the change a new leader could bring. I believe that Nicolás Maduro will eventually be thrown out of office as the U.S. put sanctions on the Venezuela energy company PDVSA which puts a cap on one of the most important exports Venezuela has oil (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/treasury-set-to-sanction-venezuela-state-owned-oil-firm-sen-rubio.html). Therefore shifting the power from Maduros regime to overwhelming support for Guaido's presidency. To add on I think the support for Guaido's presidency by the U.S. and other U.N. nations will pressure many officials to recognize Guaidos presidency. Pro Maduro countries such as Russia and China will not put much support as China wants to agree to a trade deal with the U.S. and
ReplyDeleteRussia is more focused on it's domestic problems (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/30/venezuela-crisis-heres-everything-you-need-to-know.html).
I think that until the US knows more about Juan Guaidó’s plans and what he will do if he takes control of the country, it shouldn’t recognize either as president. Even though we have seen how horrible of a leader Maduro is, we don’t know that Juan Guaidó will do anything to fix it unless he publicly publishes what he will do. As a powerful influencer, the US chooing sides will cause more violence. This will result in less peace in Venezuela, which caused many of the problems initially. Also, according to an article by the Washinton Post, (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/venezuelas-maduro-offers-to-negotiate-with-opposition/2019/01/30/be5522b8-245c-11e9-b5b4-1d18dfb7b084_story.html?utm_term=.b3a64df480f8), Maduro is now willing to sit down with the opposition and negotiate. This probably means that Maduro’s regime will soon be taken over by a hopefully more democratic government. Another thing this connects to is Russia. According to the above article, Maduro is supported by Russia. By choosing sides with the oppostion, the US has made the tension between them and Russia even greater.
ReplyDeleteThe key element to whether President Maduro or the new self-proclaimed president Juan Guaido will lead the country will be the allegiance of the military. Both parties realize this, and thus are making their best efforts to gain the military’s favor. Any coup performed has the support of the military, and in some cases, the military is the one who performs the coup, as seen in Egypt with president el-Sisi. As such, Mr. Guaido has promised “amnesty for officers who work to restore democracy.” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuelas-military-may-hold-key-to-maduros-fate/2019/01/25/14bbeeec-202b-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e299db4a22dc) However, it seems though the military will remain loyal to president Maduro, as they are unsure of this new leader’s ability to lead and to what extent he will benefit the military. If the world hopes to instill Mr. Guaido as the new leader of Venezuela, they too will have to convince the military of his ability as a leader.
ReplyDeleteI think that the United States should not have taken a side until they knew more about Juan Guaido's plans for Venezuela. Maduro reached out to other international governments, including Russia, which has been a avid supporter of Venezuela's socialist government. ( https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/maduro-offers-dialogue-to-venezuelan-opposition-and-warns-americans-against-a-new-vietnam-in-latin-america/2019/01/30/8e7076fc-241a-11e9-b5b4-1d18dfb7b084_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.37edb687f141 ). Because Trump decided to support, and therefore side with Guaido, he is opposing Russia, which could lead to additional tension between the two countries-socialist and democratic. Thus, intensifying the already problematic relationship with Russia.
ReplyDeleteI find it incredibly interesting that the Trump administration has chosen to officially acknowledge Guaido’s leadership rather than Maduro’s. In cases like this, I have to wonder whether this is a purely political choice, or if Trump and his administration also made this decision looking at criteria based on Guaido’s character and background. Those close to Guaido say that Venezuelans are frustrated with seeing the same old establishment faces time and again in Venezuelan politics and leadership. Guaido is a so-called fresh face on the scene, and doesn’t have as traditional a political background. According to CNN, he studied industrial engineering at the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello during his (recent) formative years (https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/23/americas/juan-guaido-venezuela/index.html). He is also described as both a hard worker and a nationalist. Both pieces of evidence suggest to me that Trump and his administration could have drawn parallels between Trump’s character and rise to power and Guaido’s-- Trump is also not traditionally a politician, and has often denounced old establishment figures as unable to make a change. I think he tends to consider himself as both a hard worker and a nationalist, just as Guaido is. Not too much seems to be known (or currently published in American media) about Guaido’s platform, other than his intent to unite Venezuela. It will be interesting to see how and if the Trump administration continues to give support to Guaido as he moves to make changes in the country that reflect his true views and intent.
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