Check out the article -- "China's BRI 'game changer' for world economy: Egypt's ex-diplomat"
Background
Around 130 B.C, the Han Dynasty opened up the routes to the West collectively known as the Silk Road. These routes remained opened and were popularly used for trading objects, ideas, and beliefs until ~1453 A.D. The use of these trading routes not only benefited the booming economy of China, but also the economies of other places that used the Silk Road as a means of trade such as India, Arabia, etc.
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| The map of the Silk Road (130 B.C- 1453 A.D.) |
~560 years after the downfall of the Silk Road, the Chinese government introduced the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) to the world, which is in many ways a recreation of the ancient Silk Road. BRI is an initiative created by the Chinese government in an effort to connect China with the rest of Asia, Europe, and North Africa through land and maritime routes. The main goal of this initiative is to improve infrastructure, trade, and communications among China and ~60 other countries in these regions.
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| Map of the currently proposed Belt Road Initiative (BRI) |
In this article, the secretary general of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Affairs (ECFA), Hisham El-Zimaity speaks on behalf of Egypt, discussing Egypt's perspective of this relatively new initiative.
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| Secretary General of the ECFA Hisham El-Zimaity discusses China's BRI |
Zimaity explains that Egypt has a positive view on taking a part in this initiative since she sees it as a win-win partnership. Communication and transportation between developing countries is currently very weak, and this is a concern for Egypt. However, the BRI largely improves the infrastructure and communication between countries involved in this initiative by creating road networks, new railways, ports, etc. With these new improvements there will be smoother trade and communication between these nations, solving the problem of the lack of communication and infrastructure. Egypt is one of the most important parts of the BRI, given that she has full access to the central waterway for trading, the Suez Canal. As a part of this initiative, the Suez Canal is receiving major upgrades in several of its ports and other infrastructures surrounding it. For instance, the Chinese industrial developer Tianjin Economic Technological Development Area (TEDA) is developing in the Suez province in light of the BRI. Zimaity believes that the investments being made in the Suez Canal region is beneficial to both Egypt's economy and Chinese investors. Therefore, it's a win-win relationship. Furthermore, the upgraded route will greatly help Egypt with their trade and communication with other African states. For example, the Mombasa and Djibouti ports (very important ports for international trade) that have already been further developed by China have direct links with the Suez Canal. This improvement in international trade may directly account for the betterment of Egypt's economy.
Reaction
I think that the Belt Road Initiative is a very good idea since it not only benefits China, but it also benefits other Asian, European, and African states by improving infrastructure, communication, and international trade amongst these countries. Egypt is simply one example of how the BRI is increasing investments and further developing infrastructure. However, there are many issues that may go along with creating such a route connecting these various countries together. For example, border security is very strict in almost all of the countries included in this plan. Crossing borders using this route would cause much delay due to the long procedures and security that traders and their goods must go through. This is one of many issues that could prove to be a big obstacle to the BRI.
Connection
As we have learnt in class, the functioning of the Silk Road was very important for it impacted Asia, Europe, and the Middle East in different ways. The economic impact of the Silk Road caused a spike in the trading of goods. However, along with the trading of goods (which was the main purpose of the Silk Road) cultures, beliefs, and ideas were shared as well. Similarly, the Chinese government is hoping that the BRI, foundationally being a modern day version of the Silk Road, will have many similar benefits such as improvement in trade and communications between multiple different states in Asia, Europe, and the north of Africa.
Questions to Consider
1. In 2013, due to instability in Egypt, there were attacks on the Suez Canal putting its security at risk. Could a similar situation put the BRI at risk?
2. In recent surveys taken in 2018, Egyptians trust in their institutions is falling rapidly. Some believe that this is one of the warning signs for upcoming instability in Egypt. In what ways could such a situation harm the comprehensive plan of the BRI?
Additional Sources
https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/02/unrest-risks-egypt-revolution/
Additional Sources
https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/02/unrest-risks-egypt-revolution/
While there are many potential benefits for countries throughout Asia, Europe, and Africa, there are also many potential risks involved in the Belt and Road Initiative. For example, according to http://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/three-opportunities-and-three-risks-belt-and-road-initiative , in the regions involved in the BRI, border crossing and restrictions on foreign direct investment tend to be more significant than in other regions not involved in the BRI. This could lead to troubling political relations throughout the regions of the BRI. There are also risks involved in infrastructure projects concerning the effects on the region socially and environmentally. Finally, the website mentions potential debt for certain countries developing during the BRI, for construction can cost billions of dollars. In conclusion, while there are many benefits towards the BRI, there are also risks that need to be considered before the BRI takes place.
ReplyDeleteI agree that there are many potential risks involved in the BRI which need to be solved. In addition to the border crossing issues, infrastructure projects, and potential debt, there is a issue of the stability in the countries involved, and more specific to the article, Egypt. In 2013, according to USA Today, there was terrorist activity in the Sinai peninsula in Egypt. Not only was this dangerous to the country itself, but posed a huge threat to international trade in the Suez Canal. There were terrorist threats as well as an attempt to harm incoming ships to the Suez Canal. Egyptian security was tightened in that region, and this became a big international scare. On August 31st, a rocker propelled grenade aimed for a COSCO ship. This further increased the unsafety and scare of international trade in this region-- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/11/04/suez-canal-terrorism/3285881/
DeleteThere is potential risk of this happening again, making the Suez Canal unsafe for the trade route. This is yet another huge risk in Egypt's involvement in the BRI.
The One Belt One Road Initiative is a very ambitious move made by President Xi Jinping and it might just work. According to Daniel Drache, a Political Science professor at York University, Western led globalization hasn’t brought the poor out of poverty. In contrast, China’s model of rapid, mega infrastructure as a foundation for growth has been proven to lift millions out of poverty. (https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2018/04/One-Road-Many-Dreams-The-Impact-Of-China%E2%80%99s-Global.pdf). China seeks to create and connect regional manufacturing hubs, which will lead to local demand. Therefore, the growth will not be tied down to natural resources. It is a comprehensive plan which considers other areas of cooperation between involved countries, almost sort of like an alliance. The OBOR also offers the opportunity to address the large infrastructure gap in developing countries. (https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/429412/Belt-and-Road-Initiative-Contribution-by-All-Benefits-for-All). Potential risks are the relations between each of the countries in the project. Countries that have hostile relations may affect and ruin the initiative as a whole. People in China are also doubting and criticizing the government because of the billions of dollars of foreign spending when there are still significant problems domestically. However, nothing is perfect and one should always carefully consider the advantages and disadvantages of a plan, especially if it involves trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
ReplyDeleteThere are many positive benefits of the Belt Road Initiative. According to the article, "BRI adds new roads and means of transport through infrastructure projects, development of ports, road networks, railways, etc., facilitating communication and trade among nations,". I think the Belt Road Initiative can really help the younger countries as well as the stable countries and have a very positive impact for the world. However there are risks such as negative trade relations between the participating states. Since "there is lack of communication and sufficient transport to link developing states" the BRI may end in a nasty way such as a war or a very bad relationship between the countries. I think the BRI should be thought out carefully and many people's opinion should be considered before the BRI begins.
ReplyDeleteWhile the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) seems to hold a lot of potential of helping the economic and infrastructure aspects of the included countries, it still has a lot of risks and challenges that could take years to solve. (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative)
ReplyDeleteOne of the challenges is the lack of the needed transportation infrastructure (airports and railroads) in poorer countries. China then offers to build the infrastructures with Chinese companies if the poor country will pay the loan back later. There are several examples of the poor countries being unable to pay back the loans, and many are commenting on how this might be part of the plan. (according to :https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/08/22/why-countries-might-want-out-chinas-belt-road/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3f03587e61ad) They suggest that this may be a new form of colonization involving “debt diplomacy”, which in turn can give China more benefits than you may have guessed: Chinese companies being able to own the infrastructure (ex: Malaysian airport), China being able to place military within other country in the future, internationalization of Chinese companies, China developing strong economic ties with other countries, and foreign countries’ interests being shaped to be the same as China’s. China is also very secretive with her data, such as what projects she is working on. However, awareness about this perspective on the BRI is being spread amongst countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa, therefore making it less likely some countries with join. Some countries necessary for the BRI to work, who are in the middle of the route, are currently having conflicts (such as Pakistan and other countries in the middle east(https://www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker#!/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) ) and therefore may cause problems for the BRI. Such problems include border control, terrorism, foreign relations, sudden closure of roads due to war, etc. In conclusion, though the BRI seems like it will help many countries greatly both economically and socially, but it can also cause many problems with foreign relations, colonization, environment, and economy of poorer countries. Therefore, I believe that it has a slim chance of becoming a successful project.
I feel that the Belt and Road Initiative will be able to provide countries grow to become more powerful and wealthy, but it also has the potential for many drawbacks.
ReplyDeleteOne notable drawback of the Belt and Road Initiative is its cost. According to the Guardian, the Belt and Road Initiative is a multibillion dollar plan. (https://www.theguardian.com/cities/ng-interactive/2018/jul/30/what-china-belt-road-initiative-silk-road-explainer). On the other hand, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates China to have funded $1 trillion to $8 trillion. (https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-big-chinas-belt-and-road) Although these numbers are very different they are still regardless, a large sum of money. This large amount of money invested in the plan might be used to hold a leverage over the other countries involved in the BRI and can make China gain an advantage over the countries, such as unequal trade deals. This will instead of positively affecting all countries, it will only positively affect China. Creating infrastructure for the BRI could also potentially create environmental problems. Also, disease or crossing borders might be a problem too. Furthermore, if there were to be a war in areas that the BRI crosses, it would prevent the BRI to be able to properly function. There is also the problem of who controls and is in charge of the Belt and Road Initiative. This would give certain countries unfair advantage over others and create a power imbalance as well.
I agree with all the possible benefits of BRI since it is extremely beneficial for smaller countries that are not yet developed. Egypt is one great example of underdeveloped country. With the economic help from China, they will be able to achieve larger goals. However, the small countries tend to ignore the large picture and only consider the cons of BRI for themselves. With the cooperation between itself and almost 60 other countries, China is the ultimate benefacting country. Recently, China’s economy has been decreasing as the government restricts more independent shop owners. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/28/business/china-censor-economic-news.html) The BRI is a perfect opportunity for them to increase the countries income up dramatically. However, with the increased economy comes the increase in power. China is known for its Communist government, but with overwhelming restrictions, it is slowly approaching a totalitarian country. The countries involved in BRI benefit from the help from China but will be pressured to help China out when needed. With this power, China is able to control a large portion of the world’s decision and international relations. If China grows in power and is able to control trading and international decisions, it will likely influence the government and status of the entire world. Having one country as overwhelmingly powerful is never the best scenario, which can be connected to Germany during WWI and WWII. How much the world is going to be changed is unpredictable, but in my opinion, having the Chinese government manipulate large numbers of foreign countries will not end well.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, the Belt and Road Initiative is a plan that if put together correctly and with every countries agreement, would be ground breaking. These trade routes could truly help tons of countries, especially many developing countries in Asia and Europe. These trade routes would increase trade in the country and would allow the country to export a lot more goods and import a lot more goods. In developing countries these trade routes could be extremely helpful as it would provide a big boost for these countries economies. While the price could quite possibly be a big problem for this initiative, I do believe that the overall benefit of the plan would outweigh the initial price. This initiative could transform countries economies and help the development of small countries which would be huge for those regions of the world. Even a huge country like China would most definitely benefit from the initiative in terms of their imports and exports. However, the Belt and Road Initiative could be an issue for countries and what power they have, if any, over what parts. If all countries are able to come to an agreement and pay for it, then I think it will be hugely successful.
ReplyDeleteThough I believe that the Belt Road Initiative will benefit the countries that will be apart of it, since many of these countries are fairly new, and need help with the economy etc. There are a lot of risks to be taken with the BRI too. As stated by the author, one potential risk will be that borders will be a big problem. As already currently there are many problems with stuff entering countries, which causes delays and problems. With the BRI, it will most likely increase the amount of thing entering the country further causing even more delays or more pressure on the country. Another risk would be that the plan will cost a lot of money. Plus a lot of these countries are still developing and may not be able to afford these major infrastructure builds. As stated by the Center for Global Development they show 8 countries that will become a high risk if they do decide to join the BRI, due to the high cost of the project. For them to join the BRI, they will have to take out loans for the project, furthering their debt as a country. (https://www.cgdev.org/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-heightens-debt-risks-eight-countries-points-need-better) Though I think that the BRI is a very good project, I believe that all the countries that will be included should make sure that the project will, in the long run, help them not hurt them.
ReplyDeleteI think that the Belt and Road Initiative has certain potential benefits for countries in the East. Asia needs more infrastructure, evidenced by the Asian Development Bank, which reports that the the continent needs more than $26 billion in highways, railroads, and more. But underneath the dreamy plan to ‘renew’ and modernize Asian and the silk road, there are a number of underlying problems in the initiative. For example, most countries are also not in cahoots with China’s plan. In Sri Lanka, there is anger over China’s economic influence as a threat to the country. And in New Delhi, officials talked about frustration over the large sum of debt (about 20 percent of GDP) they owe to China. Like this, many countries that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative don’t see future in the plan. Before there is a true set plan of how the Belt and Road Initiative plays out, China must make sure that the benefits outweigh the risks for all countries.
ReplyDeleteLink: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-10/how-asia-fell-out-of-love-with-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative
I agree with with your reaction and also think this could potentially be a success. I believe it could improve infrastructure, trade, and communications among some 3rd world, less developed countries. I also think it could cut down and lessen travel or shipping time by a significant amount. It’s list of benefits could go on and on, but it also comes with some major drawbacks. One of course being, the great cost it would require. According to The World Bank, the BRI would cost from billions, to even trillions, of dollars. I also think relations between countries could maybe strengthen, but also could eventually worsen, causing great chaos.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative has many positive aspects including communication between countries and furthering infrastructure, according to the article. I believe that although there are many positives in creating a fully functioning trade route, there are also several ways that the Initiative may not operate the best it can. It is already stated that these countries have communication issues and creating ways to connect all of these countries may end with terrible consequences, examples being political issues, which may lead to war, at worse. Including these hypothetical conditions and the instability in Egypt leading to the attacks on the Suez Canal, the Belt and Road Initiative could potentially be at risk. The Suez Canal is a risk to be included in the Initiative and could lead to unsafe states. Ultimately, there are too many negative situations overweighing the positives which could lead to many serious situations for the Initiative.
ReplyDelete