See original article here:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/perspectives/us-china-trade/index.html
Summary
After months of tension and debating, US and Chinese negotiators are finally willing to resolve the trade war. So far, the US has imposed three rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods, totaling more than $250 billion, covering a wide range of industrial and consumer items. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs from 10% to 25% by March 1 if a deal isn't done. If implemented, it would be tariffs on more than another $250 billion worth of goods, meaning all Chinese imports could be subjected to tariffs. However, Beijing has also fought back, establishing tariffs on $110 billion worth of US goods.
Fortunately, it seems both parties are desperate to end the trade war and determined to land a deal. Neither party benefits from the trade war escalations, as it places immense pressure on both Chinese and US markets. According to Bill Lee, chief economist and the Mike Institute.“If we had a traditional slowdown in China, China would have unquestionably pumped up credit and shot out their housing market and try to revive domestic demand that way. Right now, you see how reluctant they are to do so because they already gone on a campaign of reassuring the world we are having a policy in place that put a lid on the rising leverage. That is the big constraint the Chinese are facing now and that’s why I think they are so desperately looking to make a deal with Trump.” As stated by Lee, China is in a far more urgent position to secure a deal than the US.
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| U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, right, arrives at a hotel after talks with Chinese officials in Beijing on Feb. 14, 2019 |
Reaction: I feel that the trade war has considerably harmed both nations economies and needs to be put to an end. It's resulted in increased tensions and loads of tariffs. If nothing is resolved and a full blown trade war occurs, it could seriously damage the world's economy. The trade war could also damage or day to day lives as China implements more tariffs and increases the prices of regular items we buy.
Connection: This relates back to both the Cold War and Silk Road unit. During the Cold War, tensions between US and China were high at one time, as they are right now. However, it improved steadily. In the Silk Road unit, China traded with many countries, and China is also apart of the belt and road initiative - a program to increase the economy.
Questions:
1. What do you will be the outcome of the trade war between US and China?
2. How does the trade war impact the world as a whole?
Naturally there are 2 possible outcomes on either extreme. Either both the U.S. and China will keep escalating tariffs until one or the other caves and the world economy takes a massive hit, or they'll come to some form of agreement and step back from all the tariffs and price increases. The interesting thing though, is that a "no deal," situation would highly likely result in China going in to some form of crisis before the U.S. reaches that point because it's apparent that China needs this deal more than the US. However if China did enter into an economic crisis then US-China relations would quickly become worse than they currently are. If China loses its economic leverage and power because of this whole "trade war," then it could quite easily lose some footing because of the U.S.'s actions and will result in it having to step further back, instead of being at the head of change today. The Belt and Road Initiative is a really amazing idea, but if China can't get out of their current situation, then they won't have the capital needed to execute on that Initiative and push it forward.
ReplyDeleteI definitely agree on that China needs this deal way more than the US. However, I believe China will survive and continue to be a growing superpower. Forunately, both countries are aiming to cut 20% of existing trade imbalance every year for the next five years until the trade imbalance is less than 20% of its level in 2018.https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/02/20/china-trade-war-update-resistance-is-futile/#377fa397e9c7
DeleteAccording to the article, it says that the US and China are both at a point after a lot of tension where it's trade negotiators are able to meet and try to end the trade war. If this happens, then the trade war will most likely end with the tariffs on certain goods removed as well, but if this were to fail, I'd expect the trade war to be even worse then before with the failed attempt of ending it making it even more worse than it already was. Like stated in the article, Trump has threatened to increase tariff prices from 10% to 25% if a deal hasn't been made between the US and China. In response, it's very likely that China will raise it's tariffs as well, making the trade war even worse than before. For the entire world as a whole, the trade war will probably cause the US and China to trade with other countries other than each other, probably facilitating greater relationships with other countries. However, this could also cause the countries in the future to take sides: the United States or China. However, thing could get even worse with other countries potentially getting involved in the trade war and setting tariffs on each other. Not only this, but they could also stage acts that could anger the other countries, for example, the arresting of Meng Wanzhou, the CEO of Huawei, one of China's largest telecommunication companies who has advanced 5G data technology. The arresting of Meng has greatly raised tensions not only between the US and China, but also with Canada as well due to them arresting the CEO at the US's request.
ReplyDeleteI think that the trade war between China and the U.S. will end up in a deal benefiting both countries. As China loses income from trade with the U.S., the US loses income itself, as well as stock of some items that are limited due to the more expensive trade imposed with the tariffs. China may become increasingly willing to complete the trade deal to avoid further increases in tariffs from 10% to 25%, as President Trump stated that they would be imposed in early March. The resolution of the trade war can also be a way for the 2 countries to address and resolve other problems they have encountered regarding their relations https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/business/trump-china-us-trade.html. Although the trade war mainly affects the 2 countries, it may increase trade to other countries to avoid tariffs. The resolution of it, however, will boost the countries' trade with each other, therefore boosting their economy and boosting their trade with other nations once again. For this reason, I think that the end of the trade war will be beneficial for both countries; especially if it were to end soon.
ReplyDeleteI predict that the trade war will end eventually. A trade war is not beneficial for either of the parties and so I think as it continues, both sides will be more willing to compromise. Personally I hope that China will agree to give their citizens access to American internet sites and also make stricter rules around copyright and other issues. Overall, the trade war has significantly affected the entire world. On December 24 of last year the stock market dropped significantly. According to an article by Entrepreneur, "Stock prices fell sharply with the Dow Industrials index falling 799 points and all three major indexes down more than three percent." This was a very big deal and luckily the stock market has recovered afterwards. Still however, the trade war is unsettling for many and has taken a major toll on China's economy. Overall, I think that both countries desperately want to end the trade war because it is not good for either of them. https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/324316
ReplyDeleteI think that the trade war between the US and China will eventually end. The trade war isn't helping either country and their economies have suffered because they have two of the biggest economies and they need each other's support. I don't believe that the trade war will end immediately but each side should slowly be able to compromise more as time goes on. The longer that the trade war lasts, the longer that each country suffers so ending the trade war is in both country's best interest. Because the trade war is affecting the US and Chinese economies by the 10's and 100's of billions, it is bound to have a large effect on the rest of the world. International trading creates a large system and when two of the biggest "players" begin to falter, it will create a trickle effect to the smaller, less wealthy countries. So many countries with different beliefs are either very reliant on the US and/or China for big trade deals, so if the US and China are having problems with each others, it is reasonable to say that those problems will eventually reach other countries.
ReplyDeleteTensions between China and the US have been long lasting. These trade tariffs have hurt both countries economically and will continue to do so until a deal is made, yet both countries seem unwilling to break their pride and come to a compromise. However, this trade war will just continue to harm both countries economies and they are both starting to realize a deal must be made. This cannot go on forever because it is doing more harm than good. Tensions between these two countries have always come and gone through history, but it is time to make a compromise because imposing tariffs on China has also ended up harming the US and vice versa.
ReplyDeleteThe outcome of the trade war between US and China will lead to a compromise or agreement where both countries are happy. This could lead to "a comprehensive framework agreement, would go a significant way toward reducing bilateral tensions between the two countries," according to https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/perspectives/us-china-trade/index.html. This could benefit everyone, including the American farmers. This will boost the trade with China and the US.
ReplyDeleteDue to the trade tariffs, both parties are being forced to pay more which I think neither country wants. I think the trade war should and would end soon because of that. The impacts of this will probably be that China and the US will both have to lessen or completely get rid of their tariffs. Trump has said before that he would prefer if there were no tariffs at all and I think that imposing tariffs on other countries might be a backwards step to take. Although, putting tariffs on other countries could also be a way to start negotiations on these tariffs and potentially get rid of them. This plays into Trump's plan of putting America first instead of other countries.
ReplyDeleteI think the trade war between the US and China will end with both sides able to agree on a situation. Both sides are losing income in this trade war and will have to eventually end it. I think China will try and come up with an agreement fast because if they don't then Trump will increase the tariffs which will harm China's trade. The trade war is mostly affecting the US and China but can affect other countries. For example seeing Trump threaten to increase the tariffs might make other countries increase their trades. Overall if this trade war ends, it will affect both countries in a positive way.
ReplyDeleteIt seems likely that the end result of the conflict will be a compromise to end the trade war by any means necessary. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china#), China is the US's largest goods trading partner with $635.4 billion in total goods trade both ways in 2017, with the imports also on both sides taking up about $505.5 billion of that cost. As was also stated in this article, neither benefit from a prolonged trade war, and both are clearly valuable trading partners, so it's in the US and China's best interests in this matter to come up with a plan that they both can agree upon to continue trading. This cooperation is also good because it will give both parties a chance to potentially de-escalate tensions and work towards better relations with each other. Seeing as how both the US and China are extremely imposing and important countries in the world today, I think this could also help the US and China to improve relations across the board with their other trading partners since they're no longer economic liabilities with this conflict, as well as calm them about the potential dangers of them having tariffs placed on them as well.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the outcome of the trade war will leave some tension between the two countries, both of them raising and threatening to raise tariffs. However I don't think tension will affect any relations between the countries in any way. The article said that although China seemed more desperate to settle the dispute, both countries were fed up with their trade war. I also don't really see an consequences of other countries from the trade war outside of the US and China. This dispute was only relative to China and the US's tariffs on trading with each other which doesn't compromise other countries trading relations with the two countries.
ReplyDeleteI believe that soon, China and the US will find a way to revolve all tensions and end the trade war. After all, if they don’t resolve all issues, then many US and Chinese industries will be damaged dramatically. The trade war all began with the US’ fear of the “Made in China 2025” initiative, China’s national goal of dominating the high tech industries, or the “industrially significant technologies”, such as aerospace technologies, robotics, computer chips, etc. This is “chipping away at American and European dominance”(according to https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/06/news/economy/us-china-trade-war-tariffs/index.html) China’s exports gives her more control on high technology due to the high demand and financial profits, which encourage companies to evolve and improve technology at a lightning speed.
ReplyDeleteLast year, America believed they could win the Trade war, after all, China’s economy relies a lot on her exports with the US. However, as all trade wars do, the trade war between the US and China brought unintended consequences. The already distrusting relations between China and the US worsened many times over, even to the point where HUAWEI’s CFO was arrested in America. China fought back legally, by keeping the “Made in China 2025” initiative, slapping tariffs upon US products, and even producing their own products rather than buying from the US.
The situation spread before us conveys how difficult it will be to completely end the trade war by March 1, 2019. Even with the trade war diminished, the tensions between the US and China will not vanish.
The trade war between the US and China is described to be the largest trade war yet, and the US and China being superpowers; this is already affecting countries that are economically related to China and the US. I believe the current trade war could escalate to a global trade war, which would further harm not only Chinese and American industries, but also industries worldwide.
I think that trade will still resume with both nations because they will inevitably need each other in the future. China produces most of the world’s goods and the US also has many luxury exports. But, there is still the potential that they will be in a trade war and countries around the world will either take the side of China or the side of the US. The trade war impacts the world as a whole because that’s how all economies in the world function and the trade war will make countries richer or poorer. This is because certain countries will have certain resources and the US or China would want to rush and get the resources which in turn would make the country richer. This also may cause the US or China to ignore other countries without the resource which may result in the country getting poorer.
ReplyDeleteJust as your article states, if this trade war continues it threatens the stability of the world economy. This is an extremely undesirable outcome, because of the fact that China is the number one manufacturer. However much Trump wants to have America first, he can't deny the fact that all Americans rely on Chinese made products one way or another, and without China most of today's commodities wouldn't be accessible. If we continue to engage in this trade war, both countries will begin to grow more distant, heightening tensions which will make it harder for any deal to be reached. In the end both countries will most likely settle on some middle ground, but if China gives in this would open the door for U.S. policy makers to higher tariffs on all countries to keep all manufacturing in America. This would make it harder for other countries economies to grow, because the U.S. is such a big part in the world of trade.
ReplyDeleteJudging from the article, I feel as it'd be safe to say that trade war will end, but not in awhile. The outcome would probably come from an escalation from both sides where there is truly 0 gain from each other. Another plausible outcome I believe though is China "losing." As others have said, it seems as if China needs these deals/negotiations done more and so they'd be more willing to end it as opposed to a continued escalation of tariffs on product. The trade war may be a blessing in disguise, for other countries at least. As tariffs continue to be threatened and imposed, other countries would instead trade with each other causing more growth between each other.
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ReplyDeleteHopefully, the outcome of the trade war will end soon and end peacefully. I really hope that the tensions between the US and China will loosen and won't lead to a potential war. In the many ways that this war COULD end, all ways will most definitely impact both countries economies, if not the whole world. Depending on the way that it ends, economies could improve due to a larger number of goods being in rotation and cycling throughout the world. The negative way this could impact the world would be because of the tariffs that the countries are holding on goods due to the lack of negotiation. This could cause a decrease in profit because of expenses; which would lead to more tensions building up and could ultimately end in war. -Hussain
ReplyDeleteThe US and China trade war has been going on for to long and I believe the two countries need to find middle ground soon before they damage their markets even more. Not only have the US markets and China markets been affected, but the trade war has been affecting but the world as a whole has too. According to voxeu.org, The US-China trade significantly effects third world countries that depend on US goods and China goods. I think that with the recent meetings and the fact that the trade war is negatively affecting both countries the trade war will be over soon. It will probably end through communication and negotiation between both countries They'll hopefully find some middle ground and agree to a deal.
ReplyDeletehttps://voxeu.org/article/impact-us-china-trade-war-east-asia