Summary: Iran has decided to lessen their commitment to the nuclear deal that they signed back in 2015. The original deal made restrictions on Iran's nuclear development as well as the amount of nuclear material they were allowed to have at any point in time. In exchange for these limitations, other nations lifted their sanctions in certain areas to help Iran's economy. Iran's president Hassan Rouhani says that he is partially leaving the agreement due to some tension between the Iranians and the US over sanctions and the export of nuclear materials from Iran. The US had left the deal about a year before Iran did and had put sanctions back onto sectors that were previously unsanctioned as a part of the nuclear agreement. This caused Iran to have difficulty getting rid of the excess nuclear material that they needed to dispose of. Some of the tensions caused by this sudden instability have been blamed on the Trump Administration by European countries. Russia also believes that the US is responsible for Iran leaving the agreement due to it's return to sanctions.
Tensions between the international community and Iran only escalate as the US debates transporting more military support and defenses to the area in response to Iran's apparent military movements. Iranian ships carrying various types of ballistic missiles were discovered near the Strait of Hormuz and in the area of the Persian Gulf. The US continues to place sanctions on Iran and has restricted their oil profits. The US plans on maintaining pressure on Iran and labelled Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Reaction: I was pretty surprised to find out that the US has backed out of the nuclear agreement because of how big of a deal it was to build that in the first place. I think that the tension could get worse if things between the countries don't get sorted out but I doubt that things will get too far. Due to international intervention in Iran in the past, I believe that everybody would work to avoid another conflict. When I saw that there was already talk of military action, even just military placement, I was shocked because with this the situation could escalate faster if something were to happen.
Connection: This relates to our World War 1 unit because it involves larger governments such as the US and European nations placing restrictions on other government's military capacity. In this case, the restriction is the limiting of nuclear development in return for lifted sanctions. After World War 1, Germany was given military limitations as well in exchange for monetary support in order for it to rebuild it'd economy. In both cases, they have economic difficulties and receive help in exchange for other limitations.
Questions:
1 How far do you think this situation could potentially get, and do you think that a worst case scenario is likely?
2 Do you agree with the US applying pressure on Iran for mobilizing missiles after they partially left the nuclear agreement?
3 Do you think that smaller countries such as Iran should be allowed to freely research potentially destructive sciences such as nuclear development?
Tensions between the international community and Iran only escalate as the US debates transporting more military support and defenses to the area in response to Iran's apparent military movements. Iranian ships carrying various types of ballistic missiles were discovered near the Strait of Hormuz and in the area of the Persian Gulf. The US continues to place sanctions on Iran and has restricted their oil profits. The US plans on maintaining pressure on Iran and labelled Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
Reaction: I was pretty surprised to find out that the US has backed out of the nuclear agreement because of how big of a deal it was to build that in the first place. I think that the tension could get worse if things between the countries don't get sorted out but I doubt that things will get too far. Due to international intervention in Iran in the past, I believe that everybody would work to avoid another conflict. When I saw that there was already talk of military action, even just military placement, I was shocked because with this the situation could escalate faster if something were to happen.
Connection: This relates to our World War 1 unit because it involves larger governments such as the US and European nations placing restrictions on other government's military capacity. In this case, the restriction is the limiting of nuclear development in return for lifted sanctions. After World War 1, Germany was given military limitations as well in exchange for monetary support in order for it to rebuild it'd economy. In both cases, they have economic difficulties and receive help in exchange for other limitations.
Questions:
1 How far do you think this situation could potentially get, and do you think that a worst case scenario is likely?
2 Do you agree with the US applying pressure on Iran for mobilizing missiles after they partially left the nuclear agreement?
3 Do you think that smaller countries such as Iran should be allowed to freely research potentially destructive sciences such as nuclear development?
I think that "partially leaving" certain agreements is almost just leaving them altogether. In order for agreements to truly work, I think both sides have to outline specific terms and fully devote themselves to putting those points into practice. Also, with increased US military presence in the Middle East comes increased tensions between the Middle East and the US. Understandably, no nation wants another nation to contantly patrol them, and have them constantly in their space. Although the US may have good intentions, they may be causing more harm than damage. Iran, by backing out of the deal partially, might be showing signs of future aggression, but some say that Iran just wants their economy to flourish. They have threatened to completely leave if other countries in the agreement do not help their economy thrive. Whatever happens, we can be sure that it will take time to resolve this conflict.
ReplyDeleteSources:
https://www.france24.com/en/20190507-iran-rouhani-withdraw-usa-nuclear-deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-33521655
I think the blame should be placed on both parties because both parties had agreed to follow through and potentially remain in the nuclear deal. The US had already “went back on their word” by completely leaving the nuclear deal in 2015. This 2015 agreement was reached by seven countries after more than two years of grueling negotiations. Iran had remained in the deal for more than a couple of years and is only going to “partially” leave it. Iran signed this agreement mainly to help their economy thrive because there were very strict sanctions on them previously. However, Iran partially leaving may symbolize that Iran’s economy is almost stabilized and they no longer care about further sanctions on them. The US presence in the Middle East may also be another factor in Iran’s decision to leave. Smaller countries should be allowed to develop their own technology and no one should be able to restrict that. However, if the product will cause harm or mass destruction to anybody, there should be restrictions on such technology. This situation can get out hand really fast, especially because we are dealing with nuclear weapons. If tensions between countries in the Middle East including Iran and the US gets worse, we may very well have a nuclear war. Similarly to a concept in biology known as competition and mutualism, Iran and US should have more of a mutualistic relationship regarding the nuclear deal where both sides benefit, rather than a competitive relationship where both sides lose. What they lose includes but is not limited to lives of the people, money, territory, etc,.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2019/05/08/middleeast/iran-us-nuclear-deal-background-intl/index.html
https://www.apnews.com/cead755353a1455bbef08ef289448994
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html
(US leaving deal article)
I don't think this issue has much nuclear potential. I commented on an article similar to this one regarding the issue with North Korea. They are much more of a threat in the nuclear sense because Kim Jong Un is very spontaneous. Also they are more prepared for nuclear warfare. Regardless, I think the chance of us engaging in nuclear warfare with them or Iran is slim. The reason is because nobody wants it. All sides understand the potential of nuclear weapons, and every issue surrounding nuclear weapons has to do more so with control than with the actual desire to launch a nuke. I think the worst case situation is that Iran keeps their nuclear program and there is tension between the US and Iran. I think that smaller countries such as Iran should not be able to research nuclear warfare if. Nuclear warfare is bad in general and that is why its important for big countries and organizations like the US and the UN to control who has it. If every country on earth started their own nuclear programs, imagine how chaotic and potentially devastating that could be. To give a slight sense, according to an article by Bloomberg, "Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been the subject of global hand-wringing for more than two decades." The world has stressed over Irans nuclear capabilities for a long time, then, multiply that by every country that doesn't currently have a nuclear program. Overall, it is very important for countries like the US to control nuclear warfare.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/irans-uranium-enrichment
I think that this situation will not escalate too quickly because both countries have no reason to go into trade war, further sanctions, or other means of pressure. Other countries would only attack/blame either the US or Iran if they decided to continue this issue. The larger threat is if it affects nearby relations. For example, WWI was mainly caused because of the disagreement between Austria and Serbia that pulled allies into the war and caused its total breakout. As long as this issue remains between
ReplyDeletethe US and Iran, extreme possibilities and threats should not be an issue. I agree with the US pressuring Iran after having left the nuclear program because it ensures that Iran does not feel entirely comfortable with developing their forces. An example of this is in WWII, where Germany kept expanding and the Allied Powers took too long to provide pressure, causing Germany's uprising and the events of WWII. I don't think that smaller countries should be allowed to develop military weapons because they will sell them at all means, which could mold alliances and give one country too much power over others. Instead, they should focus on economic growth by using the resources of their region to build themselves into a larger country, and then develop military weapons for their own use instead of selling them in mass quantities and causing a military disbalance.
Although the US may have good intentions in applying pressure on Iran, I believe that it may hurt them in the future. If their intelligence was correct and Iran was mobilizing missiles, then they should try to defend against it could potentially be extremely bad for the US and many nations. I feel like the US probably should not have originally left the deal, since it was some peace between the countries and would not have angered the Iranian government more. Some of the actions taken by the US government have worsened relations even more, such as designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp as a terrorist organization, which could lead to the situation ending up at a worse case scenario. Iran has already done the same back to the US. (https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/08/politics/iran-us-irgc-designation/index.html) I believe that this could continue to keep escalating to war, since neither side seems to really want to negotiate and are both preparing for it. Overall, I think that the original agreement was fine for now, since it allowed Iran to prosper and still made sure they did become too dangerous with nuclear weapons.
ReplyDeleteThis situation will not get very far because neither country wants to fight a war. The US sent additional planes, ships, and troops to the Middle East to deter attacks from Iran. A worst case scenario is possible but still highly unlikely as war would hurt both sides. I agree with the US applying pressure on Iran. According to NPR, the main motivation for applying pressure on Iran is to isolate it and change the way the country behaves (https://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725428447/what-to-know-about-the-sudden-talk-of-war-with-iran). In this way the US is limiting Iran's power and its potential to develop dangerous weapons. Smaller countries should not be allowed to research destructive sciences because that would only jeopardize international security and give more countries the capability to start war.
ReplyDeleteI agree that the US is right to put pressure on Iran and that escalation will not be likely. There is not much reason for either side to want to start a nuclear conflict. The thing that I would have to disagree with is limiting the nuclear research of smaller developing countries. In a world of global superpowers armed with all sorts of advanced weaponry, I think that it is important for small countries to be able to defend themselves. There should definitely be restrictions on the scale of nuclear armaments to keep them from becoming too volatile but they should at least be allowed to do their own research. Small countries, if kept under good, sensible leadership, will not try provoking a nuclear war unless absolutely forced to so I don;t think the risk of war is too great.
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