"U.S. Government Shutdown: Where do we go from here?"
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Summary:
The United States government has been shut down since December 22, 2018. The major reason for the shut down is regarding funding for a border wall on the U.S.' southern border shared with Mexico. President Trump wants Congress to approve an increase in funding (totaling $5.7 billion) to build the border wall, a highly debated issue among Congressional leaders. With both sides unwilling to budge, the question has become what is next? Where do we go from here? Or what is most likely to happen? There are over 800,000 Federal employees who are either on furlough or working without pay until this issue is solved and in its 20th day, this current shut down has become the longest experiences since 1995.
BBC News has suggested 3 likely options for what could possibly happen next. First, President Trump may declare a national emergency. If the President declares a national emergency, his claims to more presidential powers would still need to be approved by Congress (and then if denied still signed off by the President). Many would view this as an abuse of power, and it's unlikely even his own party would support this move especially ahead of an election year. Second, Trump may try to strike a deal with Congress. Trump continues to meet with members of Congress to negotiate, but the other side doesn't seem to want to budge just like Trump. The biggest issue is the unwillingness to fund items like the suggested wall that many in Congress view as "ineffective". As the shutdown continues on, more and more Republicans in Congress are breaking ranks to try to end the shutdown and go against their own party.
And lastly, the shutdown may just continue. More than 800,000 Federal employees are starting to really feel the hit from the government shutdown. If it lasts through this weekend it becomes the longest shutdown in history. Many, such as TSA agents, are leaving their jobs or highly considering doing so because they are on the verge of financial ruin. These employees are facing mounting debt, inability to pay rent, etc. Beyond government employees, citizens who are relying on tax returns being completed on time, and government food assistance are going to start feeling the impact as well if the shut down does not come to an end soon.Just left a meeting with Chuck and Nancy, a total waste of time. I asked what is going to happen in 30 days if I quickly open things up, are you going to approve Border Security which includes a Wall or Steel Barrier? Nancy said, NO. I said bye-bye, nothing else works!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 9, 2019
Reaction:
In general, the government shut down is a bit scary for lack of a better term. The United States is heading in to
uncharted territory if the shut down does not end over the weekend. While both sides of the argument have valid points,
The fact that so many government employees are starting to really feel the burden of the shut down is disheartening, and
the fact that the consequences are starting to extend beyond government employees is also highly concerning. It seems
unfair that political disagreements are starting to encroach on average citizens (who really don't have much of a say) livelihoods.
Connection to World History and/or International Relations:
The government being shut down heavily impacts international relations. One of the major sources of
disagreement that led to the shut down is related to immigration policy. Immigration policies
tend to bring countries together or completely drive them apart.
In world history, this connects to really any refugee crisis we have and will be covering. Migrants from South/Central America
are fleeing to the U.S. in many cases to escape either violence or consequences from natural disasters. Upon arrival, many are
either forced out, detained, or worse. This connects to cases like Jews during the Holocaust, or displaced persons in the Middle
East as a result of conflicts there like the Arab-Israeli Conflict or the Syrian Civil War. In many of these cases, surrounding countries
have taken positions of not allowing migrants to enter their countries, or only provide basic (often abysmal) conditions for these
populations who in many (NOT ALL) cases just trying to survive.
Questions to Consider:
The government being shut down heavily impacts international relations. One of the major sources of
disagreement that led to the shut down is related to immigration policy. Immigration policies
tend to bring countries together or completely drive them apart.
In world history, this connects to really any refugee crisis we have and will be covering. Migrants from South/Central America
are fleeing to the U.S. in many cases to escape either violence or consequences from natural disasters. Upon arrival, many are
either forced out, detained, or worse. This connects to cases like Jews during the Holocaust, or displaced persons in the Middle
East as a result of conflicts there like the Arab-Israeli Conflict or the Syrian Civil War. In many of these cases, surrounding countries
have taken positions of not allowing migrants to enter their countries, or only provide basic (often abysmal) conditions for these
populations who in many (NOT ALL) cases just trying to survive.
Questions to Consider:
1. Of the three options presented, which do you feel is most likely to occur and why?
2. If the shutdown continues into uncharted territory (longer than ever before), how do you think we will be affected in the Bay Area?
3. Are the President and Congress' reasons for entering this shutdown valid? If you were in Congress, how would you suggest to
remedy the situation and why?
The government shutdown has been the longest one in history, and already proving to be one of the most damaging. With no end in sight, it is clear compromises must be made in order to lessen the costs on American lives. According to the latest estimate by S&P Global Ratings, if the shutdown continues for two more weeks, the cost it will have on economy will excceed the $5.7 billion, proposed for Trump's border wall. When addressing the questions to consider on how to go about handling such a delicate situation that is being presented to us, it is very difficult to reach a conclusion both morally and safely. I do strongly believe that giving in to President Trump's wall will just show that his abuse of presidential power will get him his way, however, by both sides refusing to settle, no progress will be made and American citizens will continue to loose all that they have.
ReplyDeleteRecently, government shutdowns have usually been about Republicans trying to cut spendings done by Democratic efforts to help underprivileged people. Examples include the 1995 shutdown fueled by Medicare expenses, as well as the 2013 shutdown caused by Ted Cruz’s protest against the Affordable Care Act (CNN Politics). This shutdown seems to be another example of a republican’s attempt to undermine the rights of disadvantaged people. I understand Donald Trump’s belief that America should have secure borders, but I do not believe it is a valid reason for such a long shut down- not only has it been taking money from hundreds of thousands of federal employees, but the issues Trump uses to validate his wall have already been suited with prevention measures. As stated in the article, Trump says 90% of America’s heroin entered through the southern border, but most of them take legal routes. The supposed wall will stop intruders by foot, but there is already a 650 mile fence scaling the border. Building an impenetrable wall is also assuming that all people who enter the US through the southern border intend to be illegal immigrants and bad people, which completely disregards asylum seeker’s rights. Those involved in this decision should reach a compromise soon, because whether the wall is built or not, many Americans will remain frustrated with the government.
ReplyDeleteWho are you referring to when you mention "disadvantaged people"? Just a point of clarification. While I understand that the wall the President is proposing is controversial, I am strongly for better border security. What we have currently is just not cutting it; thousands of women are still being raped at the border (,https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/12/central-america-migrants-rape_n_5806972.html), children are being trafficked by smugglers who are not their parents(http://humantraffickingsearch.org/protecting-unaccompanied-mexican-migrant-child-trafficking-victims/), and drugs are smuggled over the border(https://drugabuse.com/featured/drug-trafficking-across-borders/), not to mention all of the illegal firearms(https://www.ice.gov/firearms-explosives-smuggling). Currently Democrats claim to favor "gun control"; if so, why are against stronger borders? It is true that there is SOME fencing on the border already; however, the border is 1,954 miles long; yet, there is only 650 miles of fencing, leaving most of the border exposed. Of course, just the wall itself will not stop people. Proper screening is also very important, which is why we need people to come over legally, so we know who is entering our country. The problem is with ILLEGAL immigrants. Those who come in illegally are, unsuprisingly, more likely to commit crime (https://cis.org/Camarota/NonCitizens-Committed-Disproportionate-Share-Federal-Crimes-201116). If the first interaction you have with a country is breaking their law, you are less likely to assimilate and become a law-abiding, contributing citizen. When we tolerate illegal immigration, not only is it dangerous to citizens, but it is also very unfair to legal immigrants such as my own parents who came in the legal way. Legal immigrants work hard to earn the money that is needed to become a citizen and bring the rest of their family in; allowing illegals to jump ahead of them is extremely discouraging to them.
DeleteI find it interesting the way you summarized the Huffington Post article as thousands of women being raped at the border despite the fact that their article never directly stated this. Now if you just read the headline you might get mislead, but in the second paragraph they clearly state that the 80% are raped during the journey, with the key word being journey. So, while these people who are trying to come to the US are being raped, it is not necessarily anywhere near our border like you stated.
DeleteAnd now that we've clarified it's not at the border do you still think it is a border security issue?
Also, your human trafficking article is very interesting and I would like to mention that the departments sited in the article have their own steps for stopping it, with none of the steps mentioning anything about a wall. So, while human trafficking is currently a problem, according to your own article the first steps should be "improved human trafficking screening for Mexican unaccompanied migrant children" and "revise the form that is used to screen Mexican unaccompanied children, to implement better training for officers, and to make the officers better document their findings." As you can see there is no wall recommended to fix this border security issue, and perhaps we should listen to the recommendations of the United States Government Accountability Office, before we spend $5.7 billion on a wall. And let us not forget there is another border that human trafficking can happen at, so building a wall on just one border isn't really going to stop this problem (https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/human-smuggling-getting-sophisticated-on-northern-border).
DeleteAs per your comment about drugs, we are having a problem, and yes a large portion of this problem occurs at the southern border. Once again however we can see that the wall will not address other ways drugs like ecstasy enter our country, so in total it is not a permanent fix. Moreover a very recent article from CNN reports on how El Chapo claims drugs are mostly smuggled through legal entry points (https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/12/us/drug-traffickers-el-chapo-trial-drugs-across-border/index.html). If this is the case then the wall won't solve our problems.
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DeleteI'm now realizing that I did not address one of your key arguments which talks about illegal immigrants. Now at the end of your comment you are addressing the problems illegal immigrants give rise to, but I would like to focus more on just why the wall wouldn't fix it. The simple answer is that most illegal immigrants come into the US legally (https://www.npr.org/2019/01/10/683662691/where-does-illegal-immigration-mostly-occur-heres-what-the-data-tell-us). So while a border wall may discourage trying to cross illegally, it will not really address the "issue" of illegal immigrants. Perhaps, a better approach to making it so there are less illegal immigrants would be to spend more money on the US Immigration System. If you are not familiar with how bad our immigration system is, here is a website: https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/empty-benches-underfunding-immigration-courts-undermines-justice
DeleteWhile the information is a bit old, just a quick glance at some of the statistics show you how badly this system needs to be redone, for example they state that at the time of the article (July 17th, 2016) there were 212 judges serving full-time. While I'm sure this has changed by now, I still think we should spend more money on trying to make the legal process to get in easier/faster rather than just spending money on a wall that won't solve our problems.
I am impressed by your reply! You made some great points that helped me develop and better my own arguements, so thank you! Here is a story about border patrol confiscating illegal guns: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/local-media-release/us-border-patrol-agents-confiscate-weapons
DeleteThese are the stats on illegal guns/ammunition confiscated by border patrol:https://www.statista.com/statistics/329238/us-border-patrol-confiscated-firearms-and-ammunition-by-sector/
About the human trafficking arguement: if the border was better secured, fewer people would attempt trying to cross it illegaly. You are correct, it is during the journey that women are raped. But fewer people would attempt the journey in the first place if they knew it would be more difficult to cross the border.
DeleteI'm glad you were impressed and I can see that you too have put time and effort into your replies. Your arguments are certainly helping me refine my own thinking.
DeleteAnyways, I'm wondering if the US-Mexico border has a gun problem or if the US has a gun problem. Your statista link says, "In fiscal year 2017, total 369 firearms were seized by the southwest border sectors." In 2016 alone 27 million guns were sold across the US (https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/record-27-million-guns-sold-u-s-2016-article-1.2934554). I'm wondering if 369 is really a big concern for us considering how many we already have. But something you might find interesting: "Nearly 80% of Mexico’s illegal firearms and most recovered crime guns in major Canadian cities are imported illegally from the U.S." (https://lawcenter.giffords.org/gun-traffickingprivate-sales-statistics/). Seems as if they both need a wall more than us.
As a side note the previous link provides more information about guns used in crime that might put things more in perspective.
Again for human trafficking, surely we should follow the first steps suggested by the United States Government Accountability Office before we spend $5.7 billion building a wall. And for the less people attempting it, they could still just as easily enter legally and overstay in order to get in. I don't believe that the wall would prevent them. Also, are we really willing to pay $5.7 billion just to deter them from coming. Wouldn't the money be better spent reworking the US Immigration System so that they could become helpful and contributing citizens?
DeleteOf the three options presented, I believe that most likely the government shutdown will continue. The discussion (The White House, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A90yR-Nkwn8) between President Trump, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer that took place as early as December 11, 2018 validates such a possibility. Although the three agreed that it is necessary to have border security, Trump--differing from the Democrats--argued that it is absolutely necessary for the country to build a wall in order to have effective border security. Weeks before the government shutdown, disputes around the wall had already begun and opinions stood firm. Now, not only have opinions remain unchanged for the most part, but now they begin to grow more steadfast as seen in Trump's motivation for his recent visit to the southern border (CNN Politics). Personally, I believe Trump's desire to build a wall will not waver as his motivation also stems from his need to fulfill his campaign promise and ensure that he will be reelected in the future in 2020. Although some Republicans have changed their views to bring an end to the government shutdown as stated in the BBC article, it still remains highly likely that the shutdown will continue. Nevertheless, many government workers suffer from this shutdown without pay and want out, as Feng said.
ReplyDeleteThe Government Shutdown is caused by the lack of agreement between the President and the Congress to negotiate budgets for government agencies. The shutdown is coming to the 3rd week (Washington post) without any compromises from either side. This comes to my consensus that the Government Shutdown will continue at the expense of all 800,00 government workers. (Washington Post). President Trump has different ideas of where to put their money than the Congress. President Trump wants to use $5.7 billion towards building a wall to help border control, while the congress opposes this idea. The Government Shutdown has affected so many government workers by putting them in debt and making everyday life so much harder for them. The government is punishing people who do not deserve such harsh issues. I hope the Government Shutdown doesn't last for another week because the workers will have to work for a month without pay. But I also hope President Trump doesn't get the money he needs to build a wall because the $5.7 billion can be used towards agencies that need it in order to help the American people.
ReplyDeleteThis is Brett
DeleteYesterday, marked the official new record for the longest government shutdown in US history. It has caused many wide-ranging problems in the country, from 800,000 federal employees going unpaid to important services, such as the Environmental Protection Agency, doing less routinely checks crucial to the health of the public. Though President Trump has frequently called the southwestern border situation a crisis, the reality is that illegal border crossings arrests have been at one of the lowest points (under 500,000) since 2000 (over 1.5 million), according to US Customs and Border Protection. It’s not necessary to shutdown the government for these reasons. However, it is true that border security needs to be more reinforced. That situation will not fix itself and illegal immigrants with drugs (like heroin) and weapons will continue to enter the United States. I do believe that the government needs to find a solution to better border security, but there is a better way than continuing to build a barrier and shutting down the government, just creating more problems inside the US. As neither President Trump nor Congress agree to budge and compromise over the situation, the government shutdown will continue to occur and airports will become less productive and safe, food will become unexamined, and important research agencies will stop working.
ReplyDeletePolitics can be very tricky as their are always two sides to a story and both sides rarely compromise. We are seeing this right now in the united states as the government shutdown continues. I personally support the more republican aspect of the argument as I believe border security is very important. You can take Sweden as a good example, with their large increase of immigrants (primarily from muslim countries) crime has increased exponentially. Earlier in 2018, in just the span of two weeks there were 5 bombings, and on top of this Sweden has gone from being a low crime country to having homicide rates that are much higher than the Western European average. A very important statistic to note, is that gun related murders went from being committed by men with an immigrant background at just 4 percent in the early 90’s to 40 percent by 2017. Even though some immigrants assimilate well a portion don’t which is easily being noticed in Sweden.(Read more at https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-bombings-grenade-attacks-violent-reality-undoing-peaceful-self-image-law-and-order/) This can pretty easily be connected to the US as most immigrants coming from Mexico are good people, but there is a portion that smuggle narcotics, guns and even people. Facing this issue the Democratic party wants to take a less straightforward approach just as Sweden, France and other countries in the EU have been doing, but look where that has gotten them. Daily shootings and bombing now happen so often that they sometimes don’t even make headlines. Because of problems like these divisions are made just like the one in our government and these problems will prolong the shutdown. Both Republicans and Democrats need to compromise for the sake of the US people and their livelihoods. If this shutdown continues it will only affect more and more people from buying food to paying rent. I feel that this situation is somewhat valid for a shutdown but if I were in their shoes I would work much harder on listening to one another instead of just neglecting each others points of view.
ReplyDeleteI found your comment very interesting and I'm wondering how you think the border wall will fix our border security problems, several of which I've discussed in other replies. I'm also very curious why you thought it was relevant to mention that the immigrants were from primarily muslim countries, seeing as how that information isn't very relevant in this comparison to the US border wall with mexico.
DeleteRegarded to Aidan, you may say that crime has gone down a little bit but for example. San Francisco has a violent crime rate 59% higher than the rest of California and 87% higher than the rest of the US(Area Vibes). Just because it has gone down it doesn't mean it is still safer than other places.
DeleteRegarded to Jason, I am not saying that we need a wall but we do need better border control. My parents had to wait 8 months to enter the US from communist USSR where Jew where discriminated against. Allowing anyone(Illegal immigrants) to come in and then have the middle class pay for their living expenses doesn't make sense. I brought up Muslims because the issue in Sweden is equivalent to our problem here.
DeleteI understand that a lot of people disagree with building a wall. I am not claiming that just a wall will fix all of our immigration problems; I directly stated that in my first comment. However, if walls are not effective, why do so many countries, such as India/Pakistan, Israel/West Bank, have one?(https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trumps-border-wall-is-standard-practice-in-other-parts-of-the-world).
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DeleteI believe that the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has caused many people to think about the pros and cons of a border wall, but it has also caused many unforeseen difficulties. The shutdown has affected at least 800,000 government workers, some being furloughed(let off for a short time) and others continuing to work without pay for an extended period of time(washington post). The shutdown has also affected federal agencies such as National Parks, the FDA, and funding to farmers. Although border security is a problem in the U.S, the budget of 5.7 billion dollars seems outrageous for a project that only might help the U.S. and it's illegal immigrant problems. As the article stated, many of the drugs supposedly coming from Mexico are able to make it into the U.S. following completely legal routes, not necessarily crossing the border illegally. Also, a border fence currently is in place, and it does not successfully deter a large number of immigrants from crossing into U.S. soil. Trump feels so strongly about this issue that he is prepared to put in place a national emergency to bypass congress and receive military funding for the border wall. The decisions made by Trump have had serious consequences, as the feud between democrats and republicans is one of the main reasons for the ongoing shutdown. Many democrats and republicans are opposed to the idea of the wall, and seven republicans supported the democratic bill to reopen the government(BBC). As the shutdown continues, more and more people are affected within and separate of the government. The shutdown has lasted for nearly a month, and there is currently no sign of it ending. If president Trump uses the national emergency protocol, more problems will be created, as many people are opposed to the moral problems posed by a border wall. The 5.7 billion wall would have to be funded, a large sum of money that will not come from one source. Overall, the problems created by putting up a wall will outweigh the risks of allowing some illegal immigrants to enter the country. If I were part of Congress, I would try to think of a more effective and cheaper way of patrolling the border and keeping american citizens safe. The wall would be quite cumbersome and ineffective without proper maintenance as well as monitoring.
ReplyDeleteOf the three options from the BBC article I believe that the most likely option is for the continuation of the government shutdown. This the longest government shutdown in history so it is clear that there is something different about this shutdown compared to previous ones. However, comparisons can be made. This shutdown is most similar to the 3-week shutdown under Bill Clinton in 1995. In 1995 the shutdown ended due to public discontent. Nearing the end of the shutdown the public placed the most blame on the Republican party(NPR). In this shutdown the public has blamed Donald Trump with over 50% saying he is more responsible than the Democrat party(CNN). However, Bill Clinton approval rating has averaged over 10% higher than Trump's through their first term(Gallup). Ronald Reagan's approval ratings have been very similar Trump's well throughout their terms(FiveThirtyEight). Ronald Reagan's second 1982 shutdown where the house was Democrat and the senate Republican like this one is is the most comparable. The 1982 shutdown was caused by the Democrats not accepting Reagan's requested funding for MX missiles(Vox, Fox News). MX missiles were a "major defense priority"(Washington Post) of Reagan's similar to how the wall is a "very important priority"(Kellyanne Conway) for Trump. At the end of the shutdown MX missiles were not funded. I believe the shutdown will end without the wall being funded but another shutdown will likely occur later into Trump's presidency about the same issue. Another thing I think should be added is that the 5 billion Trump wants for the wall will not even cover the entire border and the full wall will cost over 20 billion(Fox News, NBC).
ReplyDeleteRetired ICE agent on why we need a wall: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xF2Ho564BS0
ReplyDeleteAre you really comfortable with 1,304 miles of our border exposed? I mentioned this in my original comment, how we only have 650 miles of fencing out of almost 2000 miles of border
U.S.-Canadian border, excluding Alaska, is approximately 3,987
Deletemiles. Why don't we have a wall there (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS21729.pdf)? Especially if they're human trafficking from that border (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/17/us/northern-border-illicit-crossing.html).
Note that I don't really want a wall between Canada and the US, I'm just pointing out that frankly building a border wall between the US and Mexico is fairly arbitrary and definitely not worthy of ransoming the government.
But you are missing one crucial piece of information that would tell you why we don't have much issue with our neighbors from the north. Currently estimates say that there are approximately 100,000 illegal immigrants from Canada(https://nationalpost.com/news/world/northern-aliens-around-100000-canadians-live-under-the-radar-in-u-s-as-illegal-immigrants), while there are around 5.6 MILLION illegal immigrants from Mexico(http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/). Just that huge difference in numbers should tell you why Trump's pushing for a southern border wall. 100,000 is literally 1.852 percent of 5.4 million, and when compared to the overall U.S. population Canada's illegal immigrants make up 0.03 percent of the U.S. population. So overall, the illigal immigrants from Canada are much less of an issue to America, as those from Mexico are.
DeleteWow, I didn't know that, and I think you bring up a very interesting point. It makes me wonder how hard it would be for these immigrants to just fly to Canada and then enter from their side. Also, how many of the 5.6 million would have been stopped from entering if we did build the wall (based on my current knowledge my guess would be not too many since so many of them entered legally *the npr source in my other comment*). Also, I wonder if some people would be encouraged to stay in the US instead of leaving, because they would worry they couldn't get back in. Also, what do you think about the human trafficking happening across the US Canadian Border? Sorry for the barrage of questions. Please don't feel any obligation to answer all of them. I'm just curious :)
DeleteThe wall may be costly; $20 billion is quite a bit of money! However, this is the cost of illegals: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/border-surge-highest-since-2011-each-illegal-immigrant-costs-70-000-7x-deportation-price
ReplyDeleteHowever the wall will not prevent illegals from entering (https://www.npr.org/2019/01/10/683662691/where-does-illegal-immigration-mostly-occur-heres-what-the-data-tell-us).
DeleteAs previously mentioned.
*the majority of illegals
DeleteAdding onto that, its been estimated that 20-40% of illegal immigrants from Mexico come to the U.S. via planes, and they just overstay their visas. Last I checked, planes are able to fly over walls, making the wall useless to stopping that 20-40% of immigrants.(https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/sep/08/jorge-ramos/ramos-40-undocumented-immigrants-come-air/)
DeleteNow being the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, I think the Trump with strike a deal with Congress. Although President Trump has the right to declare a national emergency, he knows the public, democrats and republicans will all claim it is an abuse of power. At a discussion at the White House, the president said, “What we’re not looking to do right now is national emergency." (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/12/donald-trump-government-shutdown-border-wall-democrats). Additionally, I believe the shutdown will not continue as everyone realizes the detrimental harm it has caused upon the nation. According to S&P Global Ratings, the shutdown has cost the US economy $3.6Bn, and will exceed Trump's funding in two weeks time. (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/11/shutdown-cou-mean-2-billion-less-consumer-spending-a-week-hitting-these-retailers-the-most.html). In the Bay Area, for the most part I think our day to day life will be mostly unaffected. There may be a few protests or riots around, but Congress has passed a bill that would ensure back pay for federal workers affected by the shutdown. I feel the President and Congress' reason for the shutdown are completely flawed. Through this shutdown, more chaos has been caused, and it would've been simpler to just find the wall in the first place. The shutdown's literally already cost billions of dollars and continuing to cost more. I believe both parties should listen to each other for the sake of the hundreds of thousands of Americans affected. Congress should actually try to compromise with Trump in a meeting where they balance out all the pros and cons and figure out a solution.
ReplyDeleteIf the democrats had funded the wall though, they would have taken the first step down a slippery slope. What if the next time he doesn't get what he wants he does another shutdown and then another one and then another one. Letting trump get away with holding the government hostage can only end in disaster.
DeleteI think the most likely way that things will go is that Congress and Trump will come to an agreement of some sort. This seems to be the most probable option because I doubt Trump will go as far as to declare national emergency and if he does, I don't think Congress will approve. I also don't think that the shutdown will continue as many of the people are speaking out about the negative effects that the some government workers are experiencing. I think that Trump will not give in completely but instead will make a compromise with Congress. I strongly believe that the Bay Area will experience some form of a protest or march (especially in San Francisco) and there will be even more negative feelings towards Trump. Other than that, I think it will be mainly government employees who will feel the shutdown the most. Illegal immigration is an important issue but I think that the approach that Trump is taking might be in the wrong direction. According to the image included in the post, the number of illegal immigrants coming in through the US Mexico border has dropped pretty significantly in recent years. Also, in 2017 the number of illegal immigrants getting into the US by overstaying a visa outgrew the amount of people coming in through the border(Washington Examiner). Based on this, I believe that it would make more sense to spend some money on strengthening the US Mexico border but also deal with the problem of immigrants entering legally through a visa and staying too long. After those issues have been addressed, then we could focus on getting the existing illegal immigrants back to where they came to discourage future illegal immigration.
ReplyDeleteOut of all the options mentioned in the article, I believe that the shutdown will continue. As shown in his tweet, Trump is set on having his wall funded and will not back down until he gets what he wants, almost childlike in a way, and the Congress seems equally stubborn. One can only hope that they will reach a compromise, but both sides don't seem to be ready to give one. If this shutdown continued, I believe that mainly government officials would feel the most of the backlash. The article said many of those working directly for the government are working without pay and are already suffering losses, not being able to pay for food, or rent or other very vital things. This may trickle down to the lives of those who don't work for the government slowly, but with many employees leaving I'm sure we will all face some sort of withdrawal. I believe that Trump's mindset going into this shutdown is not the most intelligent. The shutdown could possibly hurt America much more than illegal immigrants every could. America has been broadcasted as a land of opportunities, and most of the population are immigrants, if not the descendant of immigrants. Those who are truly native to this land are Native Americans, most of whom were killed off or thrown out. No matter how long a family has lived in America, they still came here for the same thing immigrants smuggle across the border for; peace and wealth. Those who have lived here long enough to achieve that should not look down on those who try to do the same. Trump has been very rich most of his life, and yet he is so against people who come into this country, trying to gain even a quarter of what he has. What right does he have to deny them of that opportunity? So I believe his trying to keep immigrants out is a very idiotic reason for putting the government on shutdown, and leaving so many of his citizens without pay. Congress, although having a better reason for entering the shutdown, is equally to blame for the backlash. They should not agree to Trump's plan, that much is obvious, but trying for a compromise would be the best line of action. This is what they are trying, but it seems that Trump will not move. Because of this, I believe that the shutdown will continue for sometimes, badly affecting America all over the country.
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ReplyDeleteI disagree that undocumented immigrants bring in violence to Americans. According to NPR (https://www.npr.org/2018/05/02/607652253/studies-say-illegal-immigration-does-not-increase-violent-crime) illegal immigrants do not increase crime in the U.S. One more source is this New York Times article, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/trump-illegal-immigrants-crime.html.
ReplyDeleteInteresting...so do you think illegal immigration is a problem, or do you think we should have open borders and fewer immigration laws?
ReplyDeleteHere is an article by a law enforcement officer: https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/crime/329589-the-truth-about-crime-illegal-immigrants-and-sanctuary-cities
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ReplyDeleteInstead of looking at what congress could have done instead of a government shutdown, I'd like to elaborate on a slightly different outlook of things. I believe that this shutdown, which is now the longest ever in US history, will bring, or hopefully cause consideration on change to the US power system. Two big things mentioned in this article were about the president holding as much power as he does. The first was, he had the capability to even CAUSE a shutdown in the government. By giving the president this type of power, in the last month, thousands of people have begun to face a progressively growing debt. It's also lead to people leaving their jobs, and creating dysfunction in those places they've left. Second, he has the ability to declare a national emergency. Many of the comments on this page mention how if the President were to declare this, people will riot, and call this an abuse of power. This means that the option of doing something like that shouldn't really even be there, unless the US were to be under the most extreme of circumstances. To restate, this government shutdown will hopefully bring about a new, improved judgement on wether or not the president should hold such power in office.
ReplyDelete(Caroline Dixon) With the government shutdown tipping into its third week of stalemate, more and more pressure is emerging on both sides to bring an end to the question of the wall. According to BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46815847), as of Friday, January 11th, the shutdown has cost the American economy $3.6 billion and will outpace the proposed price of the wall within 2 weeks. The shutdown also puts economic pressure on the 800,000 federal employees who are on furlough or working without pay, and many are considering leaving their jobs to keep up with payments during the shutdown. The article itself went over how members of both chambers are looking for an “exit ramp” to end the stalemate. Eventually, there will be a tipping point where the pressure from outside Congress to end the debate and save the economy and federal workers will force both sides to cut their losses and reach an agreement before they start an uprising. As for the claim that President Trump will declare a national emergency to get his wall, it’s likely only leverage for him because his party is already starting to balk out on the deal (see: Republicans already starting to vote to reopen the government without wall funding) and he can’t offer any compromise to the Democrats for support. Besides, it will still have to be approved by Congress (and then signed off by Trump, creating another stalemate), and his own party is unlikely to support the move. Overall, I don’t believe President Trump will declare a national emergency or that the shutdown will continue for much longer, and a compromise is Congress’s best bet (and most likely choice) in resolving the stalemate and reopening the government.
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ReplyDeleteI believe the shutdown will have to continue since we have already passed the point where either side could back out of it unharmed. Now since government employees have been harmed neither side can back out without getting serious backlash from their base. Democrats see no way they can compromise anything about the wall and Trump cannot leave the shut down politically unharmed without receiving something for the wall. This leaves only two possible ways I see this shutdown ends. One is president trump declaring a national emergency which will most likely happen should the shut down continue another week or two. The other is a compromise which cannot happen since Democrats have nothing they want to give as a compromise that is substantial enough for Trump to end to shut down. This leaves the national emergency as the only true option. Should Trump declare a national emergency he would be granted the ability to pursue border wall legislature himself and Congress would be forced to either draft an order canceling the state of emergency or people affected by the law would have to go to the courts.(https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/12/trump-may-declare-national-emergency-border-wall-battle-heres-what-that-means/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f19ce2f1aff8). This itself seems way more likely than any agreement because there have been no signs for one and its already been one of the longest shutdowns's in history.
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ReplyDeleteOut of all three options presented in the article I believe the government shutdown will continue and many of the government workers who are affected by the loss of their paychecks will simply quit their jobs. Many who rely on their paycheck to use for their livelihood and to help provide for their family will join more stable jobs to help pay for their rent of the debt they face. In an article by Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/lizfrazierpeck/2019/01/14/the-real-financial-impact-of-the-government-shutdown-on-workers/#76283f8c42b5) half of all of the 800,000 government workers affected by this shutdown half of them haven't received college education. This could affect them in ways such as missing their mortgage payments, paying for groceries and paying their credit cards. The shutdown can have a tremendous affect on those in the Bay Area by expiring low income housing that some people were relying on and if the shutdown continues throughout March people could get hit with cuts to their food stamps which they rely on to eat. However many republicans may soon see the negative consequences their support for the wall has had and switch aims to not support the wall. President Trumps reason for the shutdown is simply to complete a campaign promise. According to Vox (https://www.vox.com/2018/12/28/18158873/wall-shutdown-trump-dreamers-deal)
ReplyDeletemany border officials believe that the wall will be ineffective to stop illegal immigration. Border agencies already have a great deal of walls surrounding populated areas around Tijuana, and the building of walls in the Middle of nowhere is simply just ineffective.
The government shutdown is Trump's way of getting what he wants. If congress appeases his behavior by approving the increase of funding for the wall, it will create an endless problem and give him the mindset that he can do whatever he wants as long as he is in office. The shutdown has already cost the US economy $3.6 billion as of Friday. According to CNBC, if the shutdown continues for another two weeks, it will exceed Trump's request of $5.7 billion and cost the economy over $6 billion dollars. I believe that the shutdown will continue because it is so difficult to solve a situation where both sides of the argument are so unwilling to cooperate. I personally do not agree with Trump's wall because it will not effectively solve any issues in America. Immigrants are essential to the US economy and according to thehill.com, economists suggest that for every 1% increase in immigration to the US, the GDP increases by 1.15%. In addition to this, Washington Post states that of the 16,831 criminals attempting to enter the US, 63% appeared at other ports of entry, such as airports, meaning that building a wall on the border would not prevent this. I think that Congress needs to compromise because otherwise the government shutdown will ultimately cause America more harm than good, especially economically.
ReplyDelete^Grace Callan
ReplyDeleteLike several of my peers, I believe that the government shut down will continue. With the shut down reaching its twenty third day, I believe that all politicians are feeling the pressures of finding a solution. However, with either side showing signs of relenting, there has been little progress in finding a bipartisan achievement.
ReplyDeleteThe article mentions some of the popular methods to end the shut down: Trump caves in, Congress caves in, an agreement is established, or Trump declares a national emergency. Despite making very little progress, all the members of Congress are still receiving their salary. On the contrast, the 800,000 federal workers are being deprived of their monthly income, and for some, those effects are devastating. Moreover, the government shut down is doing significant harm to our economy. According to Vox News (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/14/18179000/trump-wall-economic-cost-shutdown-jerome-powell), if the shut down continues for another two weeks, the total losses will be equivalent to the amount of money Trump initially requested for his wall, about 5.6 billion dollars.
Finally, although I disagree with the idea that a wall will do any good for immigration, I understand Trump's pressure in obtaining the funding. Building a wall along the southern boarder was a huge tactic in Trump's 2016 presidential campaign with some arguing that it helped him win several of the more conservative states. If he fails to follow through with his promise, he will lose his credibility which could harm his 2020 campaign significantly.
Based on this article I think that the stalemate will continue. Both sides won't budge leaving little to no wiggle room for negotiation. President Trump's stubbornness is evident with his tweet. This stalemate seems to have many consequences that will affect life around the country including the Bay Area. People with government jobs (for example, TSA jobs) will suffer financial problems until they can start getting paid again. But the biggest problem for these people is when? When will this whole conflict between President Trump and Congress end? People who rely on the government to receive their paychecks have a tough decision to keep their job in hopes that this will resolve soon or quit and find a new job. I believe both sides have reasonable arguments but to what extent is it worth not budging. Creating the wall along the border will provide security from people crossing the border but it is not reasonable to spend $5.7 billion on something that I find not necessary. If I were in Congress I think the best course of action would be to wait a few more days. This will put pressure on both sides forcing them to reach a decision. Congress will most likely have to allow some funding for President Trump's wall, and President Trump will have to agree in order to prevent possible poor public image of leaving workers without money for a long time and federal services not being delivered.
ReplyDeleteIt says I'm logged in but anyways this is Henry Louie's article
DeleteOut of the three options presented, I feel that Trump and congress will eventually come to a consensus about what to do. This seems most likely to happen because even if Trump does declare a national emergency, congress will not approve. I also don't think that the shutdown will continue much longer as Trump is actually willing to cooperate with congress through negotiations before he call for a national emergency. I don't think the backlash against the wall or the 800,000 people out of jobs are motivating Trump to move things forward. I think he just wants to fulfill his promise to his base. The shutdown's affect in the Bay Area is through it's impact in government jobs. According to the nytimes (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/11/nyregion/tsa-shutdown.html), TSA officers are leaving their jobs, meaning that airports could be leave unprotected. This means that homeland security (which affects us normal citizens more) is being jeopardized over a stalemate about border security. I do not think Trump's reasons for entering the shutdown are valid because he is taking advantage of fear and using it to scare people into wanting to close borders. Trump is putting congress in a hostage situation because if nothing works out, he will take the blame away from himself and put it on congress, saying that all 800,000 federal employees were put out of work because of congress, not him. He is trying to force a deal out of congress by taking advantage of the situation.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading this article, I believe that this government shutdown is going to keep occurring. This is because Trump is very stubborn and won't end this feud until he gets his way. As a result of this, people are not getting paid and debt is increasing. I also believe that this shutdown will continue because it has gone in too deep to end without any real benefits. While this shutdown eventually WILL end, I do not believe it will end anytime soon and the effects of this shutdown will prove, like it is proving now, that the effects will be drastic.
ReplyDeleteIf the effects of the government shutdown are drastic enough for normal people to see them, don't you think the government officials will also see these effects? Well there already are a multitude of people working to end the government shutdown. From what I'm reading in your comment you seem to be implying that all their work is in vain, and their efforts are entirely useless, when that just isn't true. There are already democrats who have gotten some republican senators to support a temporary opening of the government (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/donald-trump-us-government-shutdown-how-will-it-end/10710882). This indicates that republican senators are ALREADY seeing the effects of the government shutdown, but at the same time their decision to support this could also be because they have election coming up soon.
DeleteThe information presented in the hill article is from 2014. FBI data from 2017 suggests that crime is lower in the Mexican border than in the rest of the United States(https://www.cato.org/blog/crime-along-mexican-border-lower-rest-country).
ReplyDeleteFrom the information listed in the article above, the most likely outcome would be for Trump to strike a deal with congress. Both sides are aware that if Trump were to declare a state of emergency there would be major backlash from the public. Having said this though, we have seen through his businesses that Trump will do whatever it takes to get what he wants. Trump himself has said that he wants to run this country like a business, meaning he may decide it's time for him to take control and start building the wall. In the Bay Area we will be largely affected by the government shutdown. Our TSA may not be directly funded by the government, but they are still a government contractor.(https://www.sfchronicle.com/travel/article/California-airports-unaffected-by-government-13533315.php) This means that if they don't get paid anytime soon, they too will have to stop paying employees, and possibly go bankrupt. If I were congress I would most likely try to strike a deal with Trump to get the government up and running ASAP, even if it means giving into SOME of his demands.
ReplyDeleteI find it fascinating that in the video featured in the chosen BBC article, Trump justified the construction of the wall on the US-Mexico border by stating that rather than creating a wall to keep those one hates outside of it, they are built to protect the people “one loves” on the inside. Trump believes this wall will serve as protection for the US, but protection from what? It’s been proven that the wall will have no real effect on the main purposes for its creation; halted drug movement and crime decrease. According to the “Politico,” the illegal movement of drugs across the border occurs mainly through legal border entrances and both illegal and legal migrants are less likely to commit a crime than US natives. Both of Trump’s reasons for the wall are clearly problems that it could not solve. As for Trump’s “determination” to protect his beloved US by establishing this wall, it lacks genuine concern. The amount of damage that the government shutdown has done to innocent civilians is terrifying. Take Donna Kelly, for example, a security officer for the Smithsonian, who, according to the Washington Post, sees the reduced and lack of pay as a result of the government shutdown as a life or death situation. Her Hypertension, or high blood sugar, is “‘nothing to play with,’” and without a consistent and regular salary, she is unable to pay her health insurance. Kelly is one of the thousands of government workers who are being forced to completely alter their life because of a petty government disagreement. The shutdown risks tampered food without the FDA working and hours of lines at airports without TSA’s security. Trump says that he will protect the people he “loves,” his American citizens, with the establishment of the wall, but how can one feel safe with the wall when he is willing to literally ruin people’s lives in order to get it approved.
ReplyDeleteGovernment shutdowns have been a reoccurring event throughout the history of the United States since 1980. However, one recent trend has been that the time they last increases. The two most recent shutdowns have also been the first and third largest. And it is not necessarily Donald Trump to blame. As much as people dislike him, it was Obama who also requested money to support ObamaCare, leading to a 17 day shutdown. So what could be the problem and what is for the future? First, we need to look at the general basis of why government shutdowns are caused. It is mainly a disagreement between Congress and the president. So why are shutdowns becoming more common and lengthy? If we look back at the issue with ObamaCare, the republicans lead the house, and democrats lead the senate. This not only means that republicans were going to try to avoid ObamaCare, but that there was going to be an internal conflict between the house and the senate within congress.This lengthens the amount of time that congress will be able to make an agreement, ultimately meaning there will be more government shutdowns as the president will be inclined to shutdown the government to force congress to join their side, and that they will be longer due to this inability to come to a conclusion. We see the same situation in our shutdown today, where democrats are in opposition to Trump's wall, causing him to decide to make a government shutdown. This is becoming a larger issue especially through media, as Fox and CNN reporters become more and more controversial, including more details that support their side instead of doing their job and reporting the story as a whole (seen in Trump’s opposition to CNN and support of Fox: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/wp/2018/08/21/trump-watches-fox-news-and-cnn-at-the-same-time/). What is to come in the future? Donald Trump is continuing to prolong the shutdown, and is even threatening to declare National Emergency to gain the money required to build the wall. In the meantime, congress and the president's inability to reach a conclusion is costing US taxpayers and government workers. The shutdown may be even further prolonged as analysts are claiming that this may be Trump's move to regain presidency in 2020. This will fuel even more controversy between the president and congress and further lengthen the shutdown. The healthiest decision to support the U.S. citizens and economy would be to come to a conclusion as soon as possible that involves an agreement between republicans and democrats both in congress and in the white house. Otherwise, citizens are going to have to pay extensively for the inability of the people they elected to come to a conclusion. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46858970).
ReplyDeleteBased on the post and the article provided, I think the most likely scenario moving forward with the government shutdown is the continuation of the shutdown until Congress can appease to president Trump's wishes or he is forced to reopen the government due to disapproval from unemployment in government jobs. The fact that the shutdown has persisted for over 20 days and is now the longest in U.S. history proves that President Trump has no intentions of reopening the government soon. In this case that the shutdown continues, I do not believe there will be a large impact on the Bay Area. Although 800,000 government jobs are being affected by the shutdown, the State government has been known to defy the federal government's wishes, as seen when the FCC voted to remove net neutrality, but California kept it. I feel if the shutdown comes to more extreme measures, the State government will fund federal employees, such as TSA agents, in California (including the Bay Area) in return for their service. Furthermore, California is the most rich state out of the United States. The State can handle to pay for temporary minor expenses,such as those caused by the shutdown. Overall, however, I feel the shutdown is unnecessary for a number of reasons. Although I do agree we need border control to prevent drug traffickers and murderers from entering the country, we also need a way for people who want to start a living in the U.S. to get in. One compromise the president could make with Congress is to use other technologies to control the border. One great way of doing this would be increasing border patrol, helping create jobs for many Americans. Another way, as shown in Fox New's Post: Border Patrol Testing Drones to be Its 'Eyes in the Sky' (https://www.foxnews.com/tech/border-patrol-testing-drones-to-be-its-eyes-in-the-sky), is using drones to detect illegal human movement across the border and notify border patrol to capture the criminals. This ensures nobody crosses the border illegally at a much cheaper cost. There are many more advanced alternatives that would be both cheaper and better at catching potential border crossers, satisfying both President Trump and Congress, and bringing an end to the shutdown.
ReplyDeleteOut of the three options given in the BBC article, I believe that the government shutdown will continue. On one hand there is President Trump who's ideas have seemed to always revolve around handling immigration, especially in the Us-Mexico border. With the current stage of the shutdown I don't believe he will back down from his position because of his stubbornness to get through what he promised the American people in his campaign and the fact that he hasn't experienced any serious negative effects from the shutdown and the argument around it. On the other hand are the Democrats who oppose the building of the wall some reasons being the $5.7 billion necessary to complete the construction and how it will prove to be ineffective. It seems that neither side will be willing the back down any time soon which is only affecting the American people. 800,000 Americans are out of an income due to the government shutdown and many of them still need to work as they are deemed essential. While the influential, big politicians are discussing and arguing about how to resolve this issue, hundreds of thousands of workers are facing the harsh reality of life without a stable income they once had. As for the chance of the government affecting the Bay Area, I believe that it definitively will, just having a lower impact than some other states. California is in one of the best states(no pun intended) to handle financial problems that the government may cause. California has the money and infrastructure to help the government employees establish stability in their lives and the biggest problem being giving the employees access to the state's help. As for the last question, I don't believe that the government shutdown was justified. From my point of view, it seems that it is a group of politician gambling at a table they shouldn't be at, with chips they shouldn't have ownership of. But the sad reality is, the chips have been thrown around the table, and are now a mess because of the gamble politicians took to stick by their beliefs and not back down, continuing the government shutdown.
ReplyDeleteThe government shutdown has gone on for 25 days. Federal workers have already missed their first paycheck. I really hope that it will end soon before workers and citizens become negatively affected. However, I believe that we need to strengthen our border security. Allowing illegals to break into America and get free citizenship is a slap in the face to every hardworking, deserving immigrant who arrived legally, as well as to US citizens whose family members died at the hands of an illegal.
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